熊涛 张文栋 Chen-Ti Chen | 祸福相倚：中国非洲猪瘟对全球生猪养殖上市公司市场表现的影响
摘要：
中国是全球最大的生猪生产国和主要的猪肉进口国。2018年8月，非洲猪瘟在中国开始爆发，这是一种感染家猪和各种野猪的高度传染性致命疾病。截至2019年底，非洲猪瘟对中国畜牧业产生严重负面影响，使中国40%的生猪死亡。我们利用来自中国和8个主要猪肉出口国的25家生猪养殖上市公司的数据，首次系统分析了非洲猪瘟对公司层面的经济影响。我们发现，平均而言，非洲猪瘟疫情公告为中国和国际生猪养殖公司带来了积极和显著的股票回报。特别的，在2019年中国农历春节期间（传统猪肉需求旺季），投资者捕捉到中国生猪存栏量出现近20%的下跌，这使得中国的生猪养殖企业平均获得了10%至40%的累计异常回报。回归结果表明，规模较大的生猪公司往往获得更大的正股票回报。我们的研究结果进一步表明，中国肉类行业存在整合、扩张和升级的机会，这些机会对其提升全球竞争力和效率具有长期影响。
Abstract：
China is the world’s largest hog producer and a leading porkimporter. Since August 2018, ongoing outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF), a highlycontagious and deadly disease affecting pigs, have hit China’s livestockindustries and wiped out 40% of China’s pigs. We leverage data on daily stockreturns from 25 major publicly listed firmsfrom China and eight major pork-exporting countries to provide the firstsystematic analysis of the firm-level economic impacts of the outbreaks. Wefind that, on average, announcements of ASF outbreaks have led to positive andsignificant stock returns for both Chinese and international hog firms. China’shog firms, on average, enjoyed 10%–40% cumulative abnormal returns during the2019 Chinese Spring Festival, when investors saw signs of a near-20% inventoryloss during a peak demand season for pork. We show that larger hog firms tendto capture greater positive stock returns. Our results suggest opportunitiesfor consolidation, expansion, and upgrades of China’s meat industry that havelong-run implications for its global competitiveness and efficiency.
原文链接（或点击“阅读原文”）：
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919221001287?dgcid=author
撰文：李苗
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